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Introduction to Theory of Change


Image: Theory of Change Example for The Golf Trust


At Ethical Good we are committed to helping purpose-based organisations to thrive and maximise the good that they can have on the world. We believe in ideas that aim to change the world, and we make it our mission to support big thinkers in delivering a positive impact.


A theory of change is a powerful tool used in various fields, such as social entrepreneurship, nonprofit organisations, and public policy, to articulate how a particular intervention or initiative will lead to desired outcomes and impact. It serves as a roadmap that outlines the logical progression of activities, assumptions, and expected results to bring about meaningful change.


At its core, a theory of change is a hypothesis that proposes a cause-and-effect relationship between specific actions and the intended consequences. It provides a structured framework to understand the underlying assumptions and factors that influence the success or failure of an intervention.


The development of a theory of change begins with a clear definition of the desired social, economic, or environmental change that an organisation or project aims to achieve. This desired change is often referred to as the "impact" or long-term outcome. It represents the ultimate goal and is typically aligned with the organisation's mission or vision.


To create a theory of change, practitioners typically work backwards from the desired impact and break it down into intermediate outcomes or "outcomes" that need to be achieved. These outcomes are measurable and observable changes that contribute directly to the desired impact. Each outcome represents a step closer to the ultimate goal.


The theory of change also identifies the key assumptions underlying the intervention. Assumptions are the beliefs about how the intervention will lead to the desired outcomes. They can relate to the context, target population, external factors, resources, or other variables that may affect the intervention's success. By explicitly stating assumptions, organisations can assess their validity and identify potential risks or challenges.


Another important element of a theory of change is the identification of activities or interventions that need to be implemented to bring about the desired outcomes. Activities are the specific actions taken by the organisation or project to facilitate change. They can include capacity building, awareness campaigns, policy advocacy, service delivery, or any other strategic actions.


Moreover, a theory of change highlights the intended outputs or immediate results of these activities. Outputs are tangible and measurable deliverables that directly result from the activities. They serve as indicators of progress and help organisations track their performance.


Monitoring and evaluation play a crucial role in a theory of change. Organisations use indicators and data collection methods to assess the progress made towards each outcome. By regularly monitoring and evaluating the intervention, adjustments can be made if necessary, and lessons can be learned to improve future initiatives.


A well-developed theory of change provides several benefits. It enhances strategic thinking and planning by forcing organisations to articulate the underlying logic and assumptions of their work. It also facilitates communication and alignment among stakeholders, enabling everyone involved to have a shared understanding of the intervention's intended impact. Furthermore, a theory of change helps organisations identify risks, prioritise resources, and make evidence-based decisions.


In conclusion, a theory of change is a systematic and strategic approach to designing and implementing interventions aimed at creating social, economic, or environmental change. It provides a roadmap that outlines the logical progression from activities to outcomes to impact. By explicitly stating assumptions, identifying activities, and monitoring progress, organisations can increase their chances of achieving meaningful and sustainable change.


Next Steps



Interested in creating a Theory of Change roadmap for your purpose-led organisation?


Check out the recording of our Theory of Change Info session to discover more about an exciting, in-person, full day Masterclass we are hosting in central London on October 4th.












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